Russian Ship and Iranian Missiles
A Russian cargo ship suspected of transporting Iranian ballistic missiles for Moscow’s war against Ukraine was spotted at a Russian port on the Caspian Sea last week. Satellite images identified the vessel, Port Olya 3, at Port Olya in Astrakhan, Russia, on September 4th. Tracking data revealed that the ship had previously been in the Iranian port of Amirabad on August 29th before turning off its transponder.
U.S. Treasury Department Actions
The U.S. Treasury Department confirmed that Russia’s Ministry of Defense used the Port Olya 3 to transport close-range ballistic missiles (CRBMs) from Iran. By early September, the first shipment of these missiles had reached Russia. In response, the U.S. imposed sanctions on the Port Olya 3, other vessels involved, and several Iranian individuals linked to the transfer.
Escalation in Iran-Russia Military Ties
This development represents a significant escalation in Iran’s support for Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. Since the invasion began in February 2022, Iran has provided thousands of drones to Russia and helped set up a drone factory within Russian territory. The recent missile transfer marks a further intensification of their military cooperation.
Fateh-360 Missiles and Their Impact
Around the same time the satellite images emerged, U.S. officials confirmed that Russia had likely received Iranian Fateh-360 ballistic missiles. These missiles, with a range of up to 75 miles and a payload of 330 pounds, could be deployed against Ukrainian targets within weeks. Their range and ballistic nature make them effective for long-range attacks and harder to intercept.
Predicted Use and Diplomatic Reactions
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) predicts that these missiles will likely be used to target Ukrainian energy infrastructure, military sites, and civilian areas in the coming months. Iran has denied supplying these missiles, calling the allegations false. In Kyiv, Ukrainian officials summoned Iran’s top diplomat, warning of severe consequences if the missile transfer is confirmed.
Historical Context and Future Implications
The Port Olya 3 has a history of traveling between Russian and Iranian ports, and by September 6th, it had departed Astrakhan for another journey. U.S. officials have privately warned that supplying missiles to Russia represents a serious escalation. The ongoing military collaboration includes sharing technology, with Russian officials having inspected Iranian missile systems as early as last September.
Potential for Policy Changes
The missile transfer may influence discussions among Ukraine’s allies about relaxing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of Western missiles against targets inside Russia. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has frequently urged for greater freedom in striking deeper into Russian territory. This issue is expected to be discussed during an upcoming meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer.