As Ukraine’s offensive in Russia’s Kursk region continues to dominate headlines and lift the spirits of Kyiv’s supporters, Moscow’s troops are making significant strides in the eastern Donetsk region, an area that remains a critical battleground in the ongoing conflict.
The Capture of New York: A Strategic Gain for Russia
On Tuesday, the Russian army announced the capture of the eastern Ukrainian town of New York—a claim verified by data from the Ukrainian crowd-sourced tracking site, DeepState. This victory moves Russian forces closer to the city of Pokrovsk, a key strategic and logistical hub for Ukraine. The capture of Pokrovsk would represent a major gain for Moscow, potentially altering the balance of power in the region.
Why Donetsk is a Battlefield of High Stakes
Donetsk is one of four Ukrainian regions that Russia claimed to have annexed in 2022, despite not fully controlling any of them. The region has been the site of some of the most intense combat since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion. Kyiv, struggling with manpower and ammunition shortages after months of relentless fighting, has found it difficult to maintain its hold on the front line. Although Ukrainian authorities may have hoped that the Kursk offensive would relieve some pressure on their forces, Russia’s advance in Donetsk shows no signs of slowing.
Recent Gains: Russia’s Most Significant Advance Since May
In the past week alone, the Russian army has captured approximately 80 square kilometers of territory in Donetsk, taking control of several key settlements, including Mykolaivka, Zhelanne, Orlivka, Lysychne, Ivanivka, and Svyrydonivka. According to DeepState, this marks Russia’s most significant military advance since May.
Alexey Alshanskiy of the Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT), an independent organization that conducts open-source investigations of the Russian military, suggests that Russia intensified its attacks in the area after realizing that much of Ukraine’s reserves were engaged elsewhere.
Limited Progress on Other Frontlines
While Russia’s progress in Donetsk has been notable, its advances in other frontline areas of Ukraine have been much more limited. In the Luhansk region and southern Ukraine, Moscow’s forces have slowed down significantly, and attempts to penetrate further into the Kharkiv region have stalled.
The Human Cost: Evacuations in Pokrovsk
In response to Russia’s advance, Ukrainian authorities have begun evacuating Pokrovsk and surrounding areas. On Monday, Vadym Filashkin, the Ukrainian governor of Donetsk, ordered the compulsory evacuation of children and their parents from Pokrovsk and about a dozen nearby villages. This affects over 53,000 people, including nearly 4,000 children. The head of Pokrovsk’s military administration, Serhiy Dobryak, has warned that Russian forces are now just over 10 kilometers from the city’s outskirts, urging the remaining residents to evacuate immediately.
The Strategic Importance of Pokrovsk
Israeli military expert David Sharp emphasizes that capturing the Donetsk region is one of the Kremlin’s top priorities, making Pokrovsk a critical target in this ongoing battle. Sharp explains that taking control of Pokrovsk could offer Russia significant territorial gains and potentially serve as an important defense center if the city is properly fortified.
However, Alexey Alshanskiy cautions that, despite Pokrovsk’s strategic importance, its capture might not deliver a decisive advantage for Russia. He points out that past victories in other cities did not result in the collapse of the Ukrainian front lines, and that the Ukrainian forces have proven resilient, even in the face of substantial losses.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainty and Ongoing Battles
Both Sharp and Alshanskiy agree that while Russia is likely to come close to capturing Pokrovsk, the outcome is far from certain. The Ukrainian army continues to conduct counterattacks, slowing Russia’s advance. Even if Russia manages to reach Pokrovsk, it remains unclear whether they can take full control of the city, especially if Ukraine can deploy additional resources to defend it.
In conclusion, as the battle for Donetsk continues, the situation remains fluid. The capture of Pokrovsk would be a significant victory for Russia, but the Ukrainian forces’ resilience means that nothing is guaranteed in this protracted conflict.