Russia seems to have shifted several thousand troops from areas within Ukraine to respond to an unexpectedly successful Ukrainian offensive within Russian borders. This move may potentially impact Moscow’s overall war strategy, according to two senior US officials.
US officials are currently assessing the exact number of Russian troops being repositioned. It appears that several brigade-sized units, each consisting of at least 1,000 soldiers, have been redirected to the Kursk region following a recent Ukrainian operation.
John Kirby, a spokesperson for the National Security Council, commented on the situation, noting that the shift in Russian resources indicates a reaction to Ukrainian activities in Kursk. He emphasized that this repositioning does not imply a cessation of Russian military operations in other parts of Ukraine, such as the northeast or the southern regions like Zaporizhya, where fighting continues.
The Ukrainian operation has garnered attention for its effectiveness and secrecy, surprising US officials. Although the operation has exposed some of Ukraine’s defenses along the extensive frontlines, it might also divert Russian forces who have made gradual gains in Ukraine throughout the summer. Ukraine reports having reclaimed over 1,000 square kilometers (386 square miles) of territory and displaced tens of thousands of Russians.
Both US and European intelligence sources suggest that a key objective of the Ukrainian strategy is to create “strategic dilemmas” for Russia, particularly in terms of troop deployment decisions. However, with hundreds of thousands of Russian troops still stationed on the Ukrainian frontlines, the short-term impact of this troop shift may be limited.
Reports indicate that Russia has not yet moved its more experienced units from Ukraine to Kursk. Instead, it seems to be reinforcing Kursk primarily with less experienced conscripts from other parts of Russia. This reinforcement strategy includes personnel from the Leningrad and Kaliningrad military districts.
Despite the impressive nature of the Ukrainian offensive, officials are cautious about its long-term effectiveness. There is concern that Ukraine might struggle to hold the territory for an extended period and that the operation could create vulnerabilities in its own defenses. Additionally, the US is hesitant to provide Ukraine with long-range missiles for use in Kursk due to their limited supply and a preference to target Russian-occupied Crimea instead.
Some officials worry that the redeployment of experienced Ukrainian troops to Kursk might weaken their frontlines, potentially allowing Russia to exploit these gaps and gain further ground in Ukraine.